New york! new yorks!

[sermad]

Has anyone else noticed the pound/dollar rate at the moment?

I hate a near heart attack at the bank this afternoon. They were offering 1:1.8.

If it hits the magic 2 then a trip to the us would be highly recommended. I think its been about 10 years since the rate was like this.

God bless george bush for crippling European trade!

[Matt Hero]

I'm sure Cheebs can add some detail here, but from what I read there is probably a bit more to come yet in the £-$ exchange rate.

If it wasn't for the vagueries of the customer situation, then I certainly would have bought a few things over the last few weeks.

I just wish the political situation made me more keen to visit. Not been to the US for 12 years

[sermad]

Well I just emailed my bro to what he thinks the rate will go to (He predicts interest rates for a living) so its in his interests to know what the dollar will be doing in the next 6 months to 1 year.

You can't write off a whole country just because of one man's crazy attempts at running a 'democracy'.

Anyway. Who really needs to go there when ebay is rock bottom at the moment and the pound is so good. Those $1500 DEEPFUNK 45's never looked so tempting.

[Si Cheeba]

Poor data point to further dollar weakness


Currency strategists were increasingly confident this week in their predictions of further dollar weakness


In spite of Friday's pullback, strategists were confident the dollar's downtrend was still in place following a series of events this week.

The overall tone was set on Monday by the Group of Seven rich nations' weekend communiqué. Despite a warning of the dangers of "excess volatility" and a greater emphasis on the need for Asian currencies to become more flexible, investors largely read the group's statement as a reiteration of acceptance of a weaker dollar.

The single biggest blow to the dollar came from Alan Greenspan, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, who signalled his ease with the greenback's decline and adopted a more dovish tone that led investors to scale back their rate rise expectations.

In his twice-yearly testimony to Congress, the Fed leader noted that a weaker currency would help narrow the current account deficit and said its decline so far had been orderly.

Mr Greenspan's dovish tone also had the effect of making higher-yielding currencies appear more attractive in relation to the dollar.

Sterling, just above $1.84 on Monday, reached a series of 11-year highs and peaked at $1.8986 on Friday. The pound was helped by signals from the Bank of England that it intended to raise interest rates from 4 per cent - compared with a US Fed funds rate of 1 per cent.

It was not just the UK currency that gained; the higher rates available in Australia and New Zealand sent both the Aussie and Kiwi dollars to their highest levels in just under seven years.


Edited from latest FT article...
=================================
So basically we're at $1.89 to the pound (in the markets) - retail should be about $1.85 soon - not too far off the 2 for 1 offer - and hopefully still heading in favour of GBP ( and Euros)


What's you bro's view Serms ? Still much more to go...? I've been taking advantage on ebay recently anyway

[Hadrian Elephant]

With 2 Dollars to the Pound looming I'm taking my Girlfriend to New York for a week. You've got to take advantage of such a good exchange rate.

Now, here's a question to the city boys like Mr Cheeba. Is it worth buying up Dollars in the hope that given a year or two it will strengthen again and you can convert them back into pounds?

I've never done anything like this, but my company made just as much out of currency transactions last year as it did from selling our goods (something wrong there I know, but we'll be more profitable this year) and it got me thinking....

[sermad]

The problem with that haid is you need serious serious cash to do it. Is the rate going to switch back down to 1.5 anytime soon? I don't think so. Bush is weakening the dollar on purpose. On paper it looks great for america - Exports sky rocket and he cuts his trade deficit. It also has a fake dummy effect of kick starting the failing US economy.

The trouble with all of this is that if it gets out of control then the US is shooting itself in the foot. I think its the worlds largest oil consumer (someone say yes or no) so by weakening the dollar their cost of oil shoots through the roof. Tally in steel imports (essential for their heavy industries) and you get one hell of a big mess if it goes too high.

My bro hasn't got back to me on what he thinks it will go to but he's also factored on uk interest rates to be 4.75 by year end.

Oh and back to your answer! If the dollar shifts 4 points like it has done then on £1000 your only making about £200 quid. Now thats a lot of risk but it might be worth it if you plan on going to america often.

I think my bro told me once he had a 10 million euro fund. That is some scary amount of money for 1 person to piss about with.

[Hadrian Elephant]

Quote[/b] (sermad @ Feb. 16 2004,22:33)]The problem with that haid is you need serious serious cash to do it. Is the rate going to switch back down to 1.5 anytime soon? I don't think so. Bush is weakening the dollar on purpose. On paper it looks great for america - Exports sky rocket and he cuts his trade deficit. It also has a fake dummy effect of kick starting the failing US economy.

The trouble with all of this is that if it gets out of control then the US is shooting itself in the foot. I think its the worlds largest oil consumer (someone say yes or no) so by weakening the dollar their cost of oil shoots through the roof. Tally in steel imports (essential for their heavy industries) and you get one hell of a big mess if it goes too high.

My bro hasn't got back to me on what he thinks it will go to but he's also factored on uk interest rates to be 4.75 by year end.

Oh and back to your answer! If the dollar shifts 4 points like it has done then on £1000 your only making about £250 quid. Now thats a lot of risk but it might be worth it if you plan on going to america often.

Cheers Sermad

I'm crap at economics so I need some sensible advice.

Guess it's back to the tough job of selling on ebay the OG Stark Realities, Moodys and Invaders LP's I keep finding in charity shops. The profit margins are tight, but it keeps the wolves from my door.....

Living in Newmarket, the only money tips I usually get are along the lines of 'put your house on Lucky Lad in the 3:30 at Chepstow'

Mind you, £250 out of £1,000 is a helluva lot better than I'd get out of my current account at HSBC!

[RobSterling]

I've been actually thinkin bout the exchange rate myself lately, as I just started using ebay.

Is there much possibility that the there could be some kind of crash there before the election? Because surely countries will stop investing in the dollar if they start making a loss? Or is it in thier interest to prop it up?... I'm not the most clued up person on the matter.

[wayne]

Assume it's a win/lose situation: GBP prices are inflated for US buyers, but UK/European buyers are getting more for their money from US sellers... What you'll gain as a buyer you'll lose as a seller, I guess, but you'll win if you're buying now, and can afford to hold off selling till the rate changes again.

Some people are doing the currency thing on smaller amounts, as on Friday I went to the bureau de change to buy a few dollars and in front of me was a guy changing very large sums (a few £1000) from GBP to USD ready for a trip out to the states later in the year. Makes sense if you've got the cash spare, I guess.

There seems to be a definite window where gains on currency switching will be worthwhile if you're planning to buy from/visit the US, but my bet would be that in the slightly longer term inflation is going to start becoming a factor...Not that I know what I'm talking about, but maybe a question worth factoring in when asking advice...